Does it matter if this Microsoft game has less than 100 Steam players?

Have you heard of Keeper, Double Fine’s surreal puzzle game where you wordlessly play as a lighthouse? It’s weird, and a little short, but Keeper is also a unique experience that fans and critics alike seem to enjoy.

Despite that warm critical reception, the ambitious adventure game is currently attracting around 100 concurrent players on Steam. That number has sparked discussion on social media about the game’s success and the role marketing has played in ensuring that outcome. For every fan speaking highly of Keeper, there’s seemingly a surprised fan who didn’t realize Double Fine was working on a new game — much less that it came out last week. Does this mean the game has failed, though?

Double Fine is owned by Microsoft, which immediately complicates the circumstances surrounding the game. Notably, Keeper was released on both Windows PC and Xbox Game Pass at the same time, and player counts for Microsoft’s subscription service are not public. Microsoft did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but releases like Keeper are typical for the company. Game Pass might flaunt big-ticket releases as a reason to pay for the service, but on a month-to-month basis, it’s the smaller games that keep things vibrant. It’s common to hear fans say they gave something a try simply because it was on Game Pass, or say that they’ll wait to try something out when it hits Game Pass.

And while Microsoft keeps insisting it is already thinking about its next generation of Xbox devices, the tech company has also repeatedly signaled it is looking well beyond the confines of proprietary hardware. This is why you can use Game Pass on a wide variety of products, and why Xbox games keep getting released on PlayStation and Nintendo consoles. Hardware exclusivity seems like a thing of the past. By proxy, Game Pass might be the Xbox brand’s true flagship product. And what “success” looks like on Game Pass is very different from what it looks like on Steam.

On Steam, player counts are king. Good player counts ensure visibility in places like the Popular releases tab, if not beget media attention. On Game Pass, things aren’t as straightforward. If the Netflix model is the most applicable comparison, then huge hits are not the entire calculus. Netflix needs shows like Squid Game to catch fire, but in order for users to stick around, they need things to watch in between seasons of high-profile shows. To do that, Netflix offers a buffet with programming capable of appealing to nearly every type of viewer imaginable, no matter what the niche is. These shows or movies may not attract the same audience Squid Game or Stranger Things does, but they’re also cheaper and faster to make. Where Call of Duty reportedly costs $700 million and multiple studios to develop, Keeper’s budget and scope are likely significantly humbler than that.

Historically, Double Fine has also never been a studio with massive mainstream appeal. Its games are beloved by the people who play them, but it seems unlikely that Microsoft bought the studio expecting an enormous return on investment. Like when Netflix taps big name actors and directors, Microsoft’s interest in Double Fine probably reflects a desire to court prestige. This doesn’t mean Microsoft wouldn’t welcome commercial success wherever it can achieve it, but what it expects out of Double Fine is likely much different than what it expects out of, say, Minecraft. You don’t fund a game about being a lighthouse thinking it’s going to be the next Fortnite.

You do fund a strange game about being a lighthouse if you’re intent on creating a service with a steady, reliable output of desirable games. A regular cadence like that cannot be carried entirely by big budget games that require thousands of people, multiple years, and many millions of dollars. Instead, Game Pass’ value proposition is lifted by smart investment in mid-size games from developers with a reliable track record, like Double Fine. The value these games provide can be immediate, but by its very nature, the subscription model is a long-tail game. Every strong product that Microsoft can create and own in-house is a valuable asset compared to games available on other platforms that may only be available on Game Pass for a limited amount of time.

Microsoft is in a strange spot right now. It’s raising prices for Game Pass and Xbox hardware, which would imply it is offering premium exclusive products… except those experiences are also doing well on competitor’s platforms. All the while, Microsoft’s continued reminders of its next console generation make it sound like it is already giving up on its current system. But Microsoft still owns many of the biggest gaming studios around, from Activision to Mojang. Many of these developers are in the middle of making or releasing games for the current generation, like The Outer Worlds 2 and Forza Horizon 6.

Inevitably, anything Microsoft does or publishes right now will be looked at with a critical and skeptical lens. Double Fine is just getting caught in the crossfire.